Year of the Militias

This week’s firefight between the Mahdi Army militia and Iraq Army units in Diwaniyah and the month long war between Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon leave me with the distinct impression that the militias will not be easily defeated. Hezbollah demonstrated a high degree of proficiency and organization against the much more powerful Israeli Army, even luring Israeli tanks into a killing box ambush at one point. Hezbollah suffered serious losses in territory and fighters but showed a clear ability to stand against a much larger force. It’s clearly a force to be reckoned with, especially given that it is indigenous which gives it the power of defending members’ homes and families.

Compared to Lebanon, the Diwaniyah clash was small scale but showed the Iraqi Army to be less than potent. Polish troops and an American fighter bomber backed up the Iraqis. The Mahdi Army captured and executed Iraqi forces and remained in control of at least two neighborhoods at the end of the fighting. Definitely not a successful demonstration of BushCheney’s “Iraqis stand up, American forces stand down” strategy. Even more disconcerting is the prospect that this clash does not represent the efforts by an Iraqi national army against a militia but rather two militias fighting for control.

Diwaniyah is run politically by the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and likely its police and security forces have been heavily infiltrated by the Iran-trained Badr Corps, the paramilitary of SCIRI.... So a lot of the struggle is probably actually best thought of as Mahdi Army on Badr Corps faction fighting. Although SCIRI and allies won the provincial elections of January, 2005, since then the Sadr movement has been gaining adherents and influence in this and other southern Shiite provinces. New provincial elections were scheduled but have never been held, in part for fear that the Sadrists would sweep to power in provincial statehouses.

Rather than creating a stable, democratic Iraq, BushCheney’s war of choice has opened a venue for factional infighting among Shi’ites, given birth to a determined Sunni resistance and created an environment where international jihadis can attack foreign and indigenous infidels. Hardly an opportune result.

The Iraqi militias will be more than difficult to eradicate. They are locals, based on tribal and sectarian loyalties and to a large degree, provide services and support that is not available from a weak central government. Iraq has always been more of a coerced federation than a nation, held together only by Strongman leaders. Now that the genie is out of the bottle, now that the Shi’ites have achieved power, the idea of an Iraqi nation seems very remote. Iraqis are standing up, alright, but they are pointing their weapons at each other.

With Hezbollah and Lebanon the situation is equally, if not more, complicated. Hezbollah grew out of resistance to the 18 year Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Its fighters are Lebanese, its representatives support Lebanese communities and it members are part of the Lebanese government. Now Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to stand up to the Israeli military. Even if Israel gets its act together and strengthens its military, it cannot eradicate Hezbollah un less it is willing to re-occupy southern Lebanon, something its previous occupation showed to be untenable in the long run. Aerial bombing will not work.

Militias are a reality in the Middle East and represent forces that cannot be easily dismissed or marginalized. Neither the US nor Israel, with all their military might, can defeat the militias militarily or politically in the long run. Perhaps it is time that every one start talking seriously rather than hurling bullets and bombs.