More Spurt Than Surge

Two months after a sound electoral thumping and one month after the Iraq Study Group found the situation in Iraq "dire and deteriorating", BushCheney is still trying to avoid the obvious solution to his Iraq clusterfuck: admit error, change course and begin to deal with a political issue in a political rather than military manner. Many have talked and written about a surge of 20,000 or more troops to bring Iraq under control once and for all.

Now it appears that the surge may be even less than anticipated.

The U.S. military is increasingly resigned to the probability that Bush will deploy a relatively small number of additional troops -- between one and five brigades -- in part because he has few other dramatic options available to signal U.S. determination in Iraq, officials said. But the Joint Chiefs have not given up making the case that the potential dangers outweigh the benefits for several reasons, officials said.

There are already signs that a limited U.S. escalation, even when complemented by new political and economic steps, may not satisfy either supporters or critics of a surge. Pentagon officials and military experts say far more troops are needed to make a real difference, but the United States would have to remobilize reserves, extend current tours of duty and accelerate planned deployments just to come up with 20,000 troops, U.S. officials say. And such a surge would strap the military for other potential crises, they add.

Anything short of a full blown occupation of 400 to 500 thousand troops is likely to subdue the violence that has been spiraling out of control for almost four years. So 20,000 isn't likely to help much. Fewer soldiers have even less chance for success.

But maybe they can push the events into the next president's term. That would be a success for BushCheney.